Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

No100 %
Yes0 %

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Entscheidet sich1. Okt. 2026vor 22 Stunden

Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf

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Basierend auf den Preisen der möglichen Ergebnisse dieses Marktes, ausgedrückt als Wahrscheinlichkeiten.

Entscheidungsregeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Vergleichbar, nicht identisch. Resolution criteria have not been compared by a person yet. Venues may settle this question on different sources or dates.
  • Polymarketdieser Markt

    Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Oman and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

    406 Halter · 155 Kommentare · gelesen 30. Sept., 02:42 UTC

  • LimitlessÖffnen →

    US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...: September 30

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

    0 Halter · gelesen 1. Okt., 00:17 UTC

Weitere Ausprägungen dieses Ereignisses

MarktPlattformPreisStatus
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Polymarket100 % NoOffen
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Polymarket84 % NoOffen

Aktivität auf der Plattform

Halter406
Gehaltener Wert—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Offene Positionen—
Kommentare190

Bestes Gebot 96 % · bester Brief 98 %

Größte Halter

  • ED9999968003608521015222679268138757769131071496782683879354114198876947977145147842
  • hosoon12354535939936252494990237723579988336237910336281008291808351435211825298252708
  • LJa7io23MCv954j54535939936252494990237723579988336237910336281008291808351435211825298252708
  • HerrieDavis68003608521015222679268138757769131071496782683879354114198876947977145147842
  • anoin12354535939936252494990237723579988336237910336281008291808351435211825298252708

Eine Momentaufnahme der Positionen, keine Erfolgsbilanz.

Letzte Trades

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190 Kommentare

Kommentare gehören zum Ereignis der Plattform, nicht zu diesem Ausgang. Jede Ausprägung desselben Ereignisses teilt diesen Thread.
  • pink.impala · vor 6 Tagen

    horrible Omanians should just make agreement already

  • hyper-liquid-xyz · vor 7 Tagen

    Araghchi - Iran proposes a 7-day plan to end the war. Tehran presented Washington, through intermediaries, with a plan that includes 7-day ceasefire in Lebanon, releasing frozen assets, blockade lift in exchange for the opening of the strait in 7 days and immediate nuclear negotiation.

  • Johan-Cruijff · vor 12 Tagen

    Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: Iran and Oman reached an understanding regarding determining a safe passage route in the Strait of Hormuz

  • Wise-Hawk · vor 15 Tagen

    the deal that was supposed to land in september is down to 6 with october at 40, the fade's been on polybro scope all month, the market's finally listening

  • higinvest · vor 17 Tagen

  • LevantLeverage · vor 17 Tagen

    The end of a legend, i will miss you Arman...

  • LevantLeverage · vor 18 Tagen

    Arman....

  • WhaleWatch-39938 · vor 18 Tagen

    LJa7io23MCv954j, a top earner, locked in $19,745.06 on September 30 with outcome No. That's serious skin in the game. What do they see that you don't?

  • MEPP · vor 18 Tagen

    The Minister of Energy of Oman said that the Strait of Hormuz will probably be opened and the current situation will be short-term.

  • WhaleWatch-48450 · vor 18 Tagen

    Valen9 currently holds $10,452.62 on September 14 with outcome Yes. One of the largest positions in this market. What do they know?

  • WhaleWatch-81686 · vor 18 Tagen

    Valen9 currently holds $10,452.62 on September 14 with outcome Yes. One of the largest positions in this market. What do they know?

  • Raskell · vor 18 Tagen

    Don't you have to quit Polymarket for the 5th time?

  • iForgor · vor 18 Tagen

    Well well well..

  • WhaleWatch-99864 · vor 18 Tagen

    Valen9 currently holds $10,452.62 on September 14 with outcome Yes. One of the largest positions in this market. What do they know?

  • LEGENDARY101 · vor 18 Tagen

    Knew it wouldn't happen. There was never any confirmation from Oman

  • MEPP · vor 18 Tagen

    court jesters on Y

  • MEPP · vor 18 Tagen

    nop

  • MrMelonHead · vor 18 Tagen

    As expected, Trump called it off.

  • JMSHZMBR988115 · vor 18 Tagen

    Listen to me when I it won’t 😁

  • GammaSqueeze1234 · vor 18 Tagen

    postponed?

Stand 2. Okt., 01:37 UTC