Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?
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Entscheidungsregeln
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.854785° N, 37.770676° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Weitere Ausprägungen dieses Ereignisses
Eine Ausprägung allein führt in die Irre; die anderen stehen daneben.| Markt | Plattform | Preis | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by October 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 82 % Yes | Offen |
| Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 90 % Yes | Offen |
Aktivität auf der Plattform
Von der Plattform gelesen vor 2 StundenBestes Gebot 24 % · bester Brief 36 %
Größte Halter
- bipbipbop45681419501727432149522475937464248601907707153656228108744494495267199657268
- JoeBlack0175900845287799547615368452877294884856883030692376741195015801935922254264792
- InterestingUser45681419501727432149522475937464248601907707153656228108744494495267199657268
- anoin12345681419501727432149522475937464248601907707153656228108744494495267199657268
- Selfish-Scratch45681419501727432149522475937464248601907707153656228108744494495267199657268
Eine Momentaufnahme der Positionen, keine Erfolgsbilanz.
Letzte Trades
- BUY76 %1 $vor 3 Stunden
- SELL69 %102,7 $vor 4 Stunden
- BUY78 %99,9 $vor 4 Stunden
- SELL23 %9,2 $vor 4 Stunden
- BUY71 %50 $vor 4 Stunden
- BUY62 %3,1 $vor 5 Stunden
Diskussion auf Predxy
Was Predxys Leser von diesem Markt halten. Lesen kann jeder; schreiben, wer angemeldet ist. Die Diskussion der Plattform selbst, sofern es eine gibt, steht im Kasten darunter.Melde dich an, um mitzudiskutieren.
Hier hat noch niemand etwas gesagt.
45 Kommentare
Aus dem eigenen Thread von Polymarket- firewalker923 · vor 2 Stunden
Respectfully, your statement shows you don't fully understand this market. Russian troops have been spotted in Mykolyaivka at various times for the past month. Therefore, we know that a single "spotted Russian" does not lead ISW to mark an area as an "Assessed Russian Infiltration" layer. Plus, ISW did not confirm an infiltration. They said an observer reported it. And their latest screenshot DOES NOT include the spot as part of ANY layer. In fact, even the territory NEAREST the spot is not an "Assessed Infiltration" layer. It is merely a "Claimed Russian Territory" layer, which is not criteria for the YES side - if the spot was even part of said layer, which it isn't.
- AntonKovac · vor 3 Stunden
Yeah yeah stop manipulating the market
- tsybka · vor 3 Stunden
In their daily reports, ISW confirmed the infiltration in the southern part of the city. A new zone is also visible on their screenshot, but they forgot to mark it on the map itself. I recommend emailing point out this error. They usually review messages and, recently, have even started replying to them.
- Voland6777 · vor 5 Stunden
Ahh, ok
- bohdancio · vor 5 Stunden
The 24-hour requirement doesn’t necessarily mean that those 24 hours have to be within the same month. If the map is updated on September 30, the 24-hour period can extend into October. What matters is that the map remains updated for 24 hours before it can resolve YES.
- Voland6777 · vor 5 Stunden
There is an update report, but ISW map itself is not updated and by rules it needs 24 hours to keep map updated, before it can be resolved as - "YES"
- bohdancio · vor 5 Stunden
It’s September 30 today! Once they make the changes visible to everyone today, nothing should stop this from resolving YES (unless they decide to joke).
- Voland6777 · vor 6 Stunden
But map wasn't updated, so September should have - No result
- bohdancio · vor 6 Stunden
ISW just published their daily assessment😊😊
- SlowFog · vor 8 Stunden
That spike was all caused by two accounts and they are both getting rinsed on their trade
- SlowFog · vor 8 Stunden
That spike over the last 15 hours is just two accounts, see the activity. Caused a panic.
- drachenlord1710 · vor 8 Stunden
isw is not out yet
- SlowFog · vor 8 Stunden
😅
- Seriip · vor 8 Stunden
This is what happens when you fly in feet-first, following the crowd without checking first. ISW is running true to form, as always. Thanks everyone :)
- Seriip · vor 8 Stunden
Lol, well, they really took us for a ride)))
- antofmanzur · vor 9 Stunden
hahaha ikr, easy af
- drachenlord1710 · vor 10 Stunden
there was no infiltrarion yesterday and Ukraine has the initiative in this direction so...
- antofmanzur · vor 11 Stunden
it´ll end in around 3 hours, no news, NO has value
- drachenlord1710 · vor 13 Stunden
I love how Russians still dont understand what infiltrations are...
- ProxyOne · vor 16 Stunden
Just Mashkovets
Stand 30. Sept., 07:55 UTC