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Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

No82 %

Yes19 %

Preis geprüft am 30. Sept., 22:38 UTC

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24h-Volumen121,2 $

7-Tage-Volumen1049,2 $

30-Tage-Volumen57.041,5 $

Liquidität14.705,9 $

Spread1 %

Entscheidet sich1. Jan. 2027in 3 Monaten

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Entscheidungsregeln

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Vergleichbar, nicht identisch. The published resolution criteria and source of truth are materially identical; Polymarket specifies a resolution timestamp, while PredictFun does not publish one.

Polymarketdieser Markt
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
330 Halter · 22 Kommentare · gelesen 30. Sept., 18:23 UTC
PredictFunÖffnen →
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
gelesen 30. Sept., 12:38 UTC

Weitere Ausprägungen dieses Ereignisses

Eine Ausprägung allein führt in die Irre; die anderen stehen daneben.

Markt	Plattform	Preis	24h-Volumen	Liquidität	Geplantes Ende	Status
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	Polymarket	100 % No	19.408,6 $	—	—	Offen
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?	Polymarket	63 % Yes	3000,1 $	—	—	Offen
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?	Polymarket	78 % No	53,5 $	—	—	Offen
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?	Polymarket	54 % Yes	18,5 $	—	—	Offen
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by February 28, 2027?	Polymarket	66 % No	14,3 $	—	—	Offen

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Optimus-54008746047030401937229622392846672148881831664328316511258982815120785809185
green954008746047030401937229622392846672148881831664328316511258982815120785809185
Overland54008746047030401937229622392846672148881831664328316511258982815120785809185
rkreddyzoomin101711789412405174054428730370251221054106361024009959880641004430966000525926
Folletin101711789412405174054428730370251221054106361024009959880641004430966000525926

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19 Kommentare

Aus dem eigenen Thread von Polymarket

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realyly · vor 9 Tagen
however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
SIMOMEGA · letzten Monat
point of your comment?
tiongbu · vor 2 Monaten
I will be smiling but you will be crying
DontTrustMe · vor 2 Monaten
You are so mysterious and so cool bro. 🥵
shomski · vor 2 Monaten
you will be smiling on tuesday
DontTrustMe · vor 2 Monaten
I don't think that WSJ article changes anything. There is no confirmation inside it that a merger will definitely happen. And if one was to ever happen, the article makes it clear that the Chinese side of Tesla's operations would first need to be fully separated or sold. 2026 is in all likelihood a too short timeframe for this to happen.
DontTrustMe · vor 2 Monaten
Are you talking about that: "The new shares, potentially worth an additional $600 billion or more, only vest if SpaceX hits two conditions: its top market capitalization milestone of $7.5 trillion, and the creation of a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants. " In the short-term (i.e. 2026), it's irrelevant imo. And implying that you couldn't properly manage them both as they were separated is not a very compelling/flattering argument that you would want to push yourself.
Evil-Rim · vor 2 Monaten
Wouldn't he want both the entities to merge and hopefully his tranches of stocks also vest(from the 1 Trillion that was given last year). I agree on risk of combined entity going down faster. But he coudl sell with the vision that he is managing them together as opposed to splitting his focus.
SIMOMEGA · vor 3 Monaten
how can September 30 go up by 1% while December goes down 1 lol
DontTrustMe · vor 3 Monaten
Could happen at some point in the future, but in the short-term, won't happen. I can think of three main reasons: 1) Tesla has always been overvalued (340x PE ratio / 200x forward PE as of right now) and Elon knows that. Tesla stock would first need to go down significantly for this to really make sense. 2) Investors tend to dislike conglomerates and prefer "pure players". That's why carve-out IPOs happen regularly. In other words, Tesla and SpaceX merged together could potentially be worth less than Tesla and SpaceX separated. 3) It would significantly increase Musk's own concentration risk. Considering all the political attacks against him, it's probably smart for him to not tie all his wealth and responsibilities into one single legal entity.
SIMOMEGA · vor 3 Monaten
what are the downsides of a merge then?
ProofOfWork · vor 3 Monaten
He would gain control.
ProofOfWork · vor 3 Monaten
For control over Tesla. If he buys Tesla with SpaceX, he would get ~50% voting control
SIMOMEGA · vor 3 Monaten
dont see how yes can be so high here, why would he merge the 2?
SIMOMEGA · vor 3 Monaten
How?
BeyondAverage4ck · vor 4 Monaten
The competitive landscape has shifted since this opened
Virtual-Queen · vor 7 Monaten
Sounds not likely. Elon can only lose by doing that.
Front-Morbidity · vor 8 Monaten
G Wells
Front-Morbidity · vor 8 Monaten
H

Stand 30. Sept., 22:42 UTC