Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?
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Entscheidungsregeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Weitere Ausprägungen dieses Ereignisses
Eine Ausprägung allein führt in die Irre; die anderen stehen daneben.| Markt | Plattform | Preis | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? | Polymarket | 96 % No | Offen |
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23 Kommentare
Aus dem eigenen Thread von Polymarket- Danya.Savin · vor 2 Monaten
на удачу🏴
- crux1s · vor 2 Monaten
Where the in combat prediction market? If Nuke gonna be used
- maklermakler · vor 4 Monaten
there could be, apperntly elon musk was discussing surgical large scale weaponry this week at the white house correspondence dinner
- S888 · vor 5 Monaten
Nuclear testing program and your bet is dumb
- thecaricature · vor 5 Monaten
We do have a nuclear program.
- thecaricature · vor 5 Monaten
It was a warcrime when we used them on Japan, and that didn't stop us. 🤣
- thecaricature · vor 5 Monaten
"More large-scale surgical."
- CompromisedGuy · vor 6 Monaten
Maybe there's a more powerful weapon against iran than a nuclear weapon. Something more large-scale surgical.
- SanchisMAD · vor 6 Monaten
What about a yes-combat detonation in Iran?
- Master-bettor · vor 7 Monaten
yes no maybe so
- archived250101 · vor 7 Monaten
No. Nukes are impractical to use and have never been used for a long time. Of course North Korea still does it because it's a toy to them, however UN considers it a war crime to use.
- adonpoli · vor 9 Monaten
nice
- S888 · vor 11 Monaten
why are people betting the US will have a nuclear program set up in less than 2 weeks? lol
- copefan · vor 11 Monaten
He said we will test nuclear like other countries did, he might refer to North Korea in 2017 where they did detonate a nuclear warhead, also after the journalist said if he’s going to test with actual warheads he said he cannot tell
- hutu · vor 11 Monaten
I doubt the U.S. goes for a nuclear test anytime soon, but every time tensions spike, people start wondering if Washington might revive old Cold War habits.
- Crowded-Screwup · vor 11 Monaten
A U.S. nuclear test could happen by the end of 2025 if geopolitical tensions escalate, but such a decision would likely be met with international criticism and calls for diplomacy.
- Rebecco · vor 11 Monaten
hope for world peace
- semid · vor 11 Monaten
I should be holding better to my yesses then
- cryptogatsu · vor 11 Monaten
ez moonie [link removed]
- semid · vor 11 Monaten
Noope
Stand 1. Okt., 17:43 UTC