US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
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Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
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Basierend auf den Preisen der möglichen Ergebnisse dieses Marktes, ausgedrückt als Wahrscheinlichkeiten.
Entscheidungsregeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between January 6 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Aktivität auf der Plattform
Von der Plattform gelesen vor 8 TagenBestes Gebot 95 % · bester Brief 97 %
Größte Halter
- clxx7257011479626409922035368873631229141341263144294525166015954883117981789975
- drfgsaer74580890713477889155778397033413604695248820561928419929239929602538131402272
- coali1074580890713477889155778397033413604695248820561928419929239929602538131402272
- Alexx452574580890713477889155778397033413604695248820561928419929239929602538131402272
- sdiff12374580890713477889155778397033413604695248820561928419929239929602538131402272
Eine Momentaufnahme der Positionen, keine Erfolgsbilanz.
Letzte Trades
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- BUY5 %1 $vor 9 Tagen
- BUY5 %13,6 $vor 10 Tagen
- BUY5 %40 $vor 10 Tagen
- SELL96 %27,7 $vor 11 Tagen
- SELL96 %1 $vor 11 Tagen
Diskussion auf Predxy
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Hier hat noch niemand etwas gesagt.
18 Kommentare
Aus dem eigenen Thread von Polymarket- sdwegtws · vor 4 Monaten
There is higher chance for Putin and Trump clash on bed than this.
- drfeyhgreretg · vor 4 Monaten
There is higher chance for Putin and Trump clash on bed than this.
- vasidjey · vor 4 Monaten
no, impossible. no one needs it
- RealTima · vor 6 Monaten
This one is the easiest 10% of your life!
- -0- · vor 8 Monaten
in or lmfao
- Crowded-Longitude · vor 9 Monaten
In what world would that happen?!?!
- Thodore · vor 9 Monaten
Russia’s conventional forces are too depleted from the Ukraine stalemate to take on a U.S. carrier strike group head-on. Instead of a 'clash' by a specific date, expect 'hybrid escalation
- crypto-basenji · vor 9 Monaten
Underpriced af Russia just sent a submarine to escort a sanctioned oil tanker off coast of Venezuela. [link removed]
- StockStrike1 · vor 10 Monaten
tracking the right wallets saves you from overthinking these markets
- StockStrike1 · vor 10 Monaten
insider activity been picking up quietly on this one, just putting it out there
- DFK · vor 10 Monaten
Even for a Jesus comeback or aliens engineering the pyramids, there are generous souls willing to buy yes. But not on Trump and Putin clashing apparently...
- Nadmi · letztes Jahr
There is higher chance for Putin and Trump clash on bed than this.
- samyyice · letztes Jahr
bros... nothing ever happens rmember
- stubbornWizard · letztes Jahr
indirect conflicts count as well, eh? Such as if another country has issues with US or Russia and they come to help … not unlikely this year imo
- context1 · letztes Jahr
americans still dont understand russians.
- GenaTheBondKilIer · letztes Jahr
Don't tell us what we're going to feel, we're trying to solve a problem.
- context1 · letztes Jahr
7c price seems fair IMO
- Termxy · letztes Jahr
what the hell is this
Stand 30. Sept., 04:42 UTC